Unlike Afghanistan, which had a mountainous terrain with the mountain chains forming natural barriers and restricting the movement of men and material, Syria and Iraq are flat desert countries with porous border areas, which are controlled by insurgent forces on both sides. Those who would not conform to this view should be killed, their wives and daughters violated, and their possessions confiscated, he wrote.
Iran has additionally made it clear to the Iraqi government that it is willing to do more to aid its neighbor in this conflict. Significantly, once a wilayah is declared, other jihadist groups that refuse to recognize the new province, swear allegiance to al-Baghdadi, or accept the authority of the Islamic State Caliphate, would be considered illegitimate.
With no end to the war in Syria in the near future and a weak Central Government in Iraq that has been divided and lacking political will to defend itself from the militants, the ISIS is here to stay and will be a major player in shaping the outcome of the conflict.
Also, the US outreach to Iran in on nuclear matters along with the reluctance of Washington to intervene in Syria militarily has irked the house of Saud. The "stans," the former Soviet Central Asian Republics, are by comparison relatively stable. Login to post comments.
It has turned a blind eye to the Shia militia driven, ongoing ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Baghdad, or the Shia militia reprisals against Sunnis. In the near term, ISIS as a whole will be politically and psychologically strengthened. There will be plenty of conflicting claims about all of this, but the facts on the ground should become clear.
The rift would emerge only later: This is especially true of Tunisia, which has supplied between one quarter and one third of all of the foreign jihadists in Libya. His unfortunate son Abdullah bin Saud, however, was taken by the Ottomans to Istanbul, where he was gruesomely executed a visitor to Istanbul reported seeing him having been humiliated in the streets of Istanbul for three days, then hanged and beheaded, his severed head fired from a canon, and his heart cut out and impaled on his body.
Moreover, it is likely that new wilayahs will be created in the future. Implications for India The crisis in Iraq affects India also in multiple ways. In a sense, Osama bin Laden was precisely the representative of a late flowering of this Ikhwani approach. The Libyan Civil War has become a maelstrom that has not only destroyed Libya as a functioning nation state but has sucked in jihadists from though out Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa.
Couple that with the resurrection of historic Persian imperialism, this time in the guise of defending the rights of downtrodden Shia minorities, and in the case of Bahrain and the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia outright majorities, and you have all of the elements to create yet another vortex of instability in the Middle East.
InSaud bin Abd al Aziz died of fever. Most of the nations in the Saharan and sub-Saharan Sahel zone are already fragile to begin with and will be hard pressed to deal with the long-term challenge of expanding jihadist activity within their borders.
The views expressed in this article are personal. In this regard, a more apt comparison might be with the Taliban. New videos have shown the movement of such equipment into Syria, and ISIS units in Iraq are already employing captured Humvees and trucks; they could potentially employ captured tanks and artillery as well.
Today in the Middle Eastern conflicts, in Iraq as well as Syria, foreigners have become mainstream combatants. If, as seems likely, the fighting in Iraq continues at serious levels for some time, these effects will become more pronounced in Syria. Indeed, the ethos of 18th century Wahhabism did not just wither in Nejd, but it roared back into life when the Ottoman Empire collapsed amongst the chaos of World War I.
What differentiates ISIS from a terrorist group such as al-Qaeda is that their goals are geographically localized.
Iran seems to have a similar strategy with the predominantly Shiite Hazara in western Afghanistan. In the same manner as earlier, the Ikhwan again succeeded in capturing Mecca, Medina and Jeddah between and Between a third and a half of them are affiliated with Islamic State, and the balance with other jihadist organizations there.
It retreated, but it maintained its hold over parts of the system -- hence the duality that we observe today in the Saudi attitude towards ISIS. The Afghan political leadership would be viewing the developments in Iraq very closely, since the drawdown or withdrawal is supposed to start by the year-end.
He argued that all Muslims must individually pledge their allegiance to a single Muslim leader a Caliph, if there were one. It will be seen as successful in battle, capable of major organizational and logistical accomplishments, and clever and supple in its operations.Security Threat Analysis: ISIS.
July 14, Saudi Arabia has recently put its military on alert in response to ISIS’s gains and explicit threats to attack the state, thus providing a place to plan and train for attacks around the world.
In the face of such a threat, the United States should make a concerted effort to counter ISIS. Main All News Middle East Analysis: The Syrian War is now threatening world peace.
Olive Branch Avenue,” while a leader of the Syrian Kurds warned Erdogan was a threat to the whole world. This article is Part I of Alastair Crooke's historical analysis of the roots of ISIS and its impact on the future of the Middle East. Read Part II here. PHOTO GALLERY. The ISIS and Conflicts in Syria and Iraq: A Threat Analysis M.
A. Athul, Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict of the $69 billion worth remittances that India received from the whole world, about $30 billion came from the Middle East. The impact of the ISIS-led campaign in Iraq could have repercussions on the security environment in. Analysis: Is ISIS done for?
Yochanan Visser is an independent journalist/analyst who worked for many years as Middle East correspondent for The threat Islamic State poses to the world now. Nov 19, · In Rise of ISIS, No Single Missed Key but Many Strands of Blame. It has wiped clean a year-old colonial border in the Middle East, controlling millions of people in Iraq and Syria.Download